Mankins mess a situation that bears watching
Football Betting Lines
07/22/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL's training camp season is once again approaching. Time for grueling two-a-days, the emergence of fantasy sleepers, and Brett Favre's annual yo-yo act with the inevitable familiar ending.
And of course, no summer in the National Football League would be complete without the time-honored tradition of contract squabbling between players and teams, usually resulting in contentious holdouts that pose a dangerous threat to the on- and off-field harmony the preseason programs are designed to achieve.
There's a particularly nasty situation brewing in New England, where the Patriots and All-Pro guard Logan Mankins are embroiled in a dispute that has shown no early signs of reaching a quick accord. Both parties have drawn lines in the sand, with the notoriously rigid Pats slashing Mankins' still-unsigned restricted free agent tender by over 50 percent, and the sixth-year pro sitting out last month's mandatory mini-camp in protest of the lack of progress on a long-term deal.
Mankins, one of more than 200 players who missed out on a chance for unrestricted free agency in the spring due to the league and its Players Association's failure to reach an agreement on a new collective bargaining plan, reportedly turned down a multi-year offer believed to average between $6.5 and $7 million per season from the Patriots a few months back. That's a nice chunk of change, especially at a position that rarely commands top dollars, but would still be dwarfed by the eye-opening seven-year, $56.7 million pact Jahri Evans -- a player with a similar experience level and credentials as Mankins -- received from the Super Bowl champion Saints in May.
New England countered by reducing Mankins' tender from $3.268 million (the highest amount a restricted free agent could receive this season) to $1.54 million (the minimum 10 percent raise over his 2009 salary), further heightening tensions between the two sides and showing the organization is going to take a hard-line stance on the matter.
That unyielding approach should come as no surprise, however. The Patriots were involved in a comparable situation with Deion Branch, then the team's No. 1 wide receiver, back in 2006, and also refused to budge as the equally-as- stubborn former Super Bowl MVP held out the entire preseason. New England eventually traded Branch to Seattle for a first-round draft choice, then replaced him by stealing a disgruntled Randy Moss from the Oakland Raiders the following April. We all know how that move worked out.
The Patriots aren't averse to shipping off cornerstone players for monetary reasons either, as last year's startling trade of five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders will attest. And with Tom Brady's contract set to expire at the end of the season, owner Bob Kraft could be less willing to pony up the big bucks to keep Mankins alongside his franchise icon in the coming years.
New England was able to avoid a potential summer standoff with nose tackle Vince Wilfork by signing the premier run-stopper to a lucrative five-year contract back in March, which would seem to work in Mankins' favor at first glance. But with Brady likely to command a deal in the neighborhood of $20 million per season and the Patriots having morphed into a more pass-oriented team in recent years, having an elite run-blocker like Mankins on board could be viewed as more of a luxury than a necessity. And with the speedy emergence of 2009 rookie Sebastian Vollmer into a starting-caliber tackle, the club may be able to slide deposed starter Nick Kaczur into the left guard spot without a precipitous drop-off.
Mankins and his camp still seem to be steadfast in their demands despite the obvious risks, and appear more than willing to hold their ground as well.
"I'll tell you one thing, I'm old-school, he's old-school," agent Frank Bauer told the Boston Herald last week. "We're two highly principled guys. If everyone's making two bucks, I'll make two bucks. If everyone is making $8 million, I'm making $8 million."
At just 28 years old and unequivocally among the top three or four players at his position at the very least, Mankins stands a good chance of the big payday he's seeking. Just don't be surprised if it's with a team other than the Patriots.
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It all starts behind the plate.
Can
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Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds
Will he or won't he? Now that the Dallas Cowboys have a new head coach in Wade Phillips, the big question will be: Does Terrell Owens stay with the team.
Jerry Jones continues to suggest that Terrell Owens will remain with the team.
"I've said that he's back, he's here, he's under contract," Jones said. "In the interviews I've just been through (to hire a new coach), it was very clear to me how highly he's thought of and how much of an impact he had on our offensive success."
Just to be sure though, Terrell Owens cleared out his locker and removed his name plate.
Terrell Owens was among the Cowboys most productive players this past season, catching 85 passes for 1,180 yards and a league-best 13 touchdowns.
But T.O. is due a $3 million roster bonus in June, then a $5 million salary this season. Cutting him before then would save a lot of money and headaches.
Aside from the questions surrounding Terrell Owens, the oddsmakers at MySportsbook.com have concerns over starting quarterback Tony Romo's state of mind and whether he will remain a starting quarterback. It is also not known how players will adjust to new head coach, Wade Phillips.
Here are the football odds as seen at MySportsbook.com and subject to change after February 10, 2007 if not locked in prior to that date.
Arizona Cardinals 60-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Baltimore Ravens 15-1
Buffalo Bills 50-1
Carolina Panthers 18-1
Chicago Bears 10-1
Cincinnati Bengals 15-1
Cleveland Browns 100-1
Dallas Cowboys 15-1
Denver Broncos 15-1
Detroit Lions 100-1
Green Bay Packers 50-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Indianapolis Colts 6-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1
Kansas City Chiefs 30-1
Miami Dolphins 40-1
Minnesota Vikings 75-1
New England Patriots 10-1
New Orleans Saints 18-1
New York Giants 20-1
New York Jets 30-1
Oakland Raiders 100-1
Philadelphia Eagles 18-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1
Saint Louis Rams 60-1
San Diego Chargers 6-1
San Francisco 49ers 75-1
Seattle Seahawks 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1
Tennessee Titans 40-1
Washington Redskins 50-1
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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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