CFL East: Blue Bombers dominant with Jyles at the helm
Football Betting Lines
07/28/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The East division took full advantage of home cooking last week, as Montreal, Toronto, and Winnipeg all won within their friendly confines. Hamilton was the lone East team to fall, as touchdowns in their matchup against Montreal were few and far between. Steven Jyles showed the league that Winnipeg would not roll over without Buck Pierce as their starting quarterback, while the Argonauts still refuse to give up in a stunning come-from-behind finish over the BC Lions.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
In the CFL, you can be sure of three things: lots of passing, exciting kick returns, and most of all, a Buck Pierce injury.
Winnipeg knew it had a talented, yet brittle quarterback on its hands going into the season. The gamble started off in the right direction, but Pierce is sidelined for 2-4 weeks with a right knee injury.
Heading into the Edmonton game, that left Steven Jyles and his one-game experience as a CFL starter to carry the team on offense.
Jyles was up to the task and then some, throwing a touchdown and running in two more to lead his team to a 47-21 thrashing of the Eskimos.
While Edmonton isn't exactly a powerhouse this season, Jyles and the Bombers did what they had to do to bounce back from an ugly week three, when they scored just seven points.
The Bombers better hope they continue to put up points when they travel to Calgary for the first western division matchup.
Offensive key to the next game: It's easy to say Jyles will need to shine again for Winnipeg to have a chance, but that is indeed the scenario. If he can combine the running game with the balanced passing last week, the Bombers will be tough to beat.
Defensive key to the game: Burris loves to pass, perhaps a little too much. The Bombers should force Burris to make poor throwing decisions, and interceptions have plagued the Stampeders all season.
Look ahead: A peek at the upcoming schedule includes some deja vu for Winnipeg, as it takes on Hamilton two weeks in a row. This is a crucial set of games for both teams in determining the playoff picture, as both teams have already split their first two matchups this season.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
Just when it looked like Hamilton had straightened themselves out, the Tiger- Cats come out with a dud against division rival Montreal Alouettes.
The defense did well to allow just two touchdowns in the game, but that doesn't help when you allow a kicker to get close enough to the uprights for seven field goals.
Offense was the bigger concern as Kevin Glenn took a step backwards, completing just 16-of-32 passes for 201 yards. Even worse, Deandra Cobb still can't find his legs as he rushed for a measly 25 yards.
With Cobb struggling so much on the ground, the Ti-Cats will face extra pressure each and every night to find adequate offense elsewhere.
Offensive key to next game: Pressure will just increase next week when Hamilton travels to Regina to take on the Saskatchewan Roughriders. As Cobb has been unable to have that big game so far this season, the receiving combination of Marquay McDaniel and David Stala will be looked on again to provide all the offense against a very defensively sound team.
Defensive key to the next game: Calgary forced Durant to throw three interceptions last week. Hamilton better hope for the same luck if they want to limit Saskatchewan's scoring opportunities. Durant still had 354 yards passing, but the Ti-Cats can live with that as long as the deep receiving corps is tightly covered. Force Wes Cates or even Durant to run and earn their yards the hard way.
Look ahead: If Hamilton loses against Saskatchewan in week five, its record falls to 1-4. While it is too early to hit the panic button in such young a season, losing back-to-back against Winnipeg in weeks six and seven would certainly leave fingers within millimeters of pressing it. A split is the bare minimum during this important stretch.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The Als are looking better and better with every passing game, and last week they can thank kicker Damon Duval for that. The veteran booted in seven field goals in eight attempts, scoring 23 of the 37 points scored in their win against Hamilton last week.
Quarterback Anthony Calvillo admitted after the game that his team should have scored more touchdowns, but it's a little difficult to complain when allowing just 14 points against a fellow eastern side.
With the exception of the ridiculous 54-51 loss to Saskatchewan in week one, the Als defense has carried Montreal all season.
Offensive key to next game: While the wins the Argos have been piling up are a surprise, the strength of their defense is not. The Argos field a better defensive squad than Hamilton and so the Als will have to work even harder to get the touchdowns that were lacking last week. Keeping drives alive, and limiting some of the dropped passes that have crept up amongst the receiving corps, will be key for Montreal this week.
Defensive key to the game: Stopping Cory Boyd is of the utmost importance. The rookie running back has been huge for the Argos and has become an integral part of the offense.
Look ahead: CFL fans already lie in wait for the rematch of the thrilling season opener between Montreal and Saskatchewan. Better defense will prevail this time around, though a clash between the league's two best teams will still probably be offense-first.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
The Argonauts found another way to win last week when Byron Parker returned a 41-yard interception in the dying minutes of the comeback win.
Parker now needs just one more TD return to match the CFL record of eight.
Last week's win marked the fourth time in as many games that the Argos have been forced to rally in the final quarter, and follows on the heels of a 27-24 come-from-behind win against Calgary two weeks ago.
These are the kinds of games Toronto lost each of the last two seasons, but the new swagger it has developed this year is all thanks to the newcomers who have transformed this team into a viable playoff contender.
The Argos better hope that swagger carries forward this week when they face a strong fourth quarter team in the Montreal Alouettes.
Offensive key to the game: Montreal's defense has been getting better as the season's gone along, which spells trouble for a Toronto side that has trouble scoring points. Cory Boyd will need to be the focal point again for the Argos to have a chance against the East's best team.
Defensive key to the game: He is one of the best quarterbacks to play the game, and though his offense has struggled this season, quarterback Anthony Calvillo must be the first name discussed when planning defensive strategies against Montreal. The Toronto defensive line is one of the best in the league and so will be charged with the task of pressuring the inexperienced o-line of the Alouettes.
Look ahead: Having two of the next three games against the defending champs may not be a pleasant experience, but sandwiched in between is a date with the punchless Edmonton Eskimos. Suffering two losses at the hands of the Alouettes is entirely possible, but so is a win in Edmonton for the resurgent Argos.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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2007 Academy Award Betting : Oscars odds
The 79th Annual Academy Awards odds , which will air February 25th, is sparking an interest throughout the nation with the announcement of its nominees. As the public chooses their favorites, sportsbooks are creating odds for one of the biggest entertainment betting nights of the year.
Whether its at a “Oscar Party” or in an on line sportsbook, entertainment gambling on award shows represent a huge increase in betting. As the public speculation mounts, MySportsbook.com, the largest and most respected sportsbook on the web, posted odds on who is going home with a “Golden Best Friend.”
“ We see a majority of our entertainment wagers come from the Academy Awards,” said MySportsbook.com spokesperson, Tim Dalton. “This is a competition that applies to everyone. These are the people that entertain us on a daily basis and you want to see them win.”
MySportsbook.com posted the following odds for Academy Awards:
Odds to win the Achievement in Directing:
Alejandro González Iñárritu "Babel": 8/1
Martin Scorsese "The Departed": 2/17
Clint Eastwood "Letters From Iwo Jima: 4/1
Stephen Frears "The Queen": 12/1
Paul Greengrass "United 93": 15/1
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Leonardo DiCaprio in "Blood Diamond": 11/1
Ryan Gosling in "Half Nelson": 20/1
Peter O’Toole in "Venus": 16/5
Will Smith in "The Pursuit of Happyness": 16/1
Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland": 1/11
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Penélope Cruz in "Volver": 18/1
Judi Dench in "Notes on a Scandal": 15/1
Helen Mirren in "The Queen": 1/50
Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada": 10/1
Kate Winslet in "Little Children": 20/1
Best Animated Feature Film:
"Cars": 1/3
"Happy Feet": 2/1
"Monster House": 20/1
Best Foreign-Language Film of the Year:
"Water" – Canada: 22/1
"The Lives of Others" – Germany: 7/2
"After the Wedding" - Denmark: 24/1
"Days of Glory (Indigenes)" – Algeria: 23/1
"Pan's Labyrinth" - Mexico: 1/10
Odds to win the Best Live-Action Short Film:
"Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)": 6/5
"Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)": 7/2
"Helmer & Son": 5/2
"The Saviour": 6/1
"West Bank Story": 7/2
Odds to win the Best Original Screenplay:
"Babel": 7/4
"Letters From Iwo Jima": 3/1
"Little Miss Sunshine": 21/20
"Pan's Labyrinth": 11/4
"The Queen": 5/4
Best Motion Picture of the Year:
"Babel": 11/4
"The Departed": 1/2
"Letters from Iwo Jima": 15/2
"Little Miss Sunshine": 17/10
"The Queen": 20/1
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 11/10
Jackie Earle Haley in "Little Children": 10/1
Djimon Hounsou in "Blood Diamond": 9/1
Eddie Murphy in "Dreamgirls": 2/5
Mark Wahlberg in "The Departed": 5/1
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Adriana Barraza in "Babel": 14/1
Cate Blanchett in "Notes on a Scandal": 11/1
Abigail Breslin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 2/1
Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls": 1/8
Rinko Kikuchi in "Babel": 11/1
Film To Win Most Oscars:
Dreamgirls: 2/3
Pans Labyrinth: 6/5
The Departed: 6/1
The Queen: 11/1
Babel: 15/1
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: 11/1
Little Miss Sunshine: 15/1
Additional sports and entertainment odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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