AFC East Position on Line in Bills-Jets Matchup

Football Betting Lines

10/31/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the chill of a late-October election season, it's high time for a referendum.

On Chad Pennington.

Well...sort of.

While it's true the reigning AFC offensive player of the week won't be dinking and dunking around Ralph Wilson Stadium when the New York Jets visit the Buffalo Bills this weekend, the varying levels of success those two have had facing Pennington's new team and others may shed light on his more celebrated successor.

For example, Chaddy and the Fins were beaten by Bretty and the Jets on opening day in September, but rallied in the second half last week to stun the first- place Bills in Miami. Advantage: New York.

In Week 2, Pennington was pulled by new coach Tony Sparano on the way to a humbling 31-10 loss to the Arizona Cardinals - a team the Jets later routed with six Favre TD passes, but one the Bills convincingly lost to, 41-17, behind a 33-completion day from Kurt Warner. Advantage: New York.

Of course, Miami got a super-efficient 22-for-28 day from Pennington in Week 5 en route to a 17-10 defeat of perennial AFC powerhouse San Diego, which ripped Favre and the Jets, 48-29, in Week 3 while losing a 23-14 decision to the Bills 28 days later in Orchard Park. Advantage: Buffalo.

So what's it all mean when the long-time AFL rivals get together for the 95th time since 1960?

Probably not much.

But it makes for interesting copy.

Regardless of your allegiance, it's clear that since eschewing the low-risk, low-reward approach of Pennington for the high-energy, high-error mindset favored by Favre, the Jets have been equal parts electric and enraging through seven games in 2008.

The Green Bay expatriate tossed two classic "Favre" touchdowns in the defeat of the Dolphins, then stunk out the joint in consecutive follow-up losses to the Patriots and Chargers.

He was reinvigorated for the career-best single-game touchdown total in the aforementioned blowout of the Cardinals, but has served up just three scores alongside seven interceptions in three games since - though, in the interest of full disclosure, two have resulted in victories.

Overall, the 39-year-old has tossed 11 interceptions against 15 touchdowns.

"We have a lot of potential," said Favre, whose TD total ties him for second in the league.

"If I clean up those mistakes and we get back healthy, I think we can be pretty good."

Meanwhile, the Pennington-like "game management" style has worked wonders overall in Buffalo, where first-year starter Trent Edwards has completed at least 60 percent of his passes in all seven games while never exceeding 279 yards or a single touchdown in any one contest.

The Stanford grad has relied on myriad weapons in steering the Bills to five wins in seven games, getting 450 yards and six rushing touchdowns from second- year back Marshawn Lynch and connecting with wideout Lee Evans for 637 pass yards and three aerial scores.

Edwards has just five TD passes and three interceptions through seven games, though his passer rating of 92.9 is third in the AFC and dwarfs the 89.5 mark posted by Favre in the same time frame.

Additionally, the Bills are 3-0 at home in 2008 and have averaged 27 points per game.

That said, angst still reigned after the loss in Miami.

"I think a lot of it had to do with field position and a lot of little mistakes and missed assignments and it's kind of frustrating," Edwards said. "We made mistakes that got us beat, and that's what's frustrating.

"We didn't play our best game and I'd rather walk off that field playing the best game we can and losing. It's frustrating."

Put it all together and only one question remains...

Are you better off than you were four quarters ago?

SERIES HISTORY

The Bills lead the all-time regular season series with the Jets by a 52-42 count, including a sweep of last year's home-and-home. Buffalo earned a 17-14 home victory when the teams met in Week 4, and took a 13-3 decision at the Meadowlands in Week 8. The Jets are 0-3 against the Bills since winning in Buffalo in 2006.

In addition to leading the regular season series, the Bills won the only postseason meeting between the franchises, a 31-27 triumph in a 1981 AFC First-Round playoff.

Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron is 4-2 in his head coaching career against the Jets, including a 1-1 mark in his tenure with the Bears (1999-2003). The Jets' Eric Mangini is 1-3 against both Jauron and the Bills as a head coach.

WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL

Though he's never won a game in Buffalo, Favre had nine TD passes against five interceptions in five career meetings with the Bills during his days with the Packers. A win Sunday would make Ralph Wilson Stadium the 31st venue in which he's won a regular-season game, equaling the NFL mark established by Dan Marino. When Favre posts a passer rating of 100.0 or better in a single game, his teams are 85-8. Among his weapons through the air are wideout Laveranues Coles, who needs two receptions to reach 600 on his career. Meanwhile, Jerricho Cotchery recorded his first 100-yard game of the season against the Chiefs when he hauled in nine passes for 102 yards. He caught eight passes for 107 yards in his last trip to Buffalo. On the ground, workhorse Thomas Jones has three TDs in his last three games and has averaged 130 yards per game in 2008 when he gets at least 20 carries. All-purpose back Leon Washington finally broke out last week, posting 274 total yards while scoring once on a run and once on a pass.

Injuries didn't help the situation for the Bills in Miami last week, when they were without standout end Aaron Schobel, who's not played since Oct. 5 due to a foot problem and did not practice with the team on Wednesday. He's second in the NFL since 2003 with 53 sacks, trailing only Washington's Jason Taylor. Elsewhere, tackle Marcus Stroud has picked up some of the pressuring slack and has a sack in two of his last three meetings with the Jets. Stroud and linebacker Kawika Mitchell share the team lead through seven games with two sacks apiece, while cornerback Terrence McGee is tops on the squad with two interceptions. Overall, the Bills are minus-3 in turnover ratio and have allowed an average of 302.3 yards per game. The team is 12-2 under head coach Dick Jauron when limiting foes to 300 yards or fewer.

WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL

Edwards has had success in limited exposure to the Jets, defeating them in his first career start last September in Orchard Park and returning for another win - though he was relieved by J.P. Losman - the following month in New Jersey. Unlike Favre, Edwards has been at his best in the late going of games in 2008, completing 35-of-51 passes for 458 yards, three TDs and a 108.1 passer rating in the fourth quarter. The Bills are 8-1 in games where Edwards' final overall rating is 100.0 or better. On the ground for Buffalo, which has at least one rushing TD in all seven games, Lynch is aiming for a third straight game with a scoring run. He's averaged 79.5 yards in two games against New York. Through the air, Evans is averaging 20.5 yards per catch in 31 receptions this season and recorded the 12th 100-yard game of his career last week against Miami. In his last four matchups with the Jets, Evans has racked up 408 receiving yards.

While Favre's misfirings on offense have swelled the turnover margin to an ugly minus-6, it's nonetheless true that the Jets haven't been forcing nearly as many opposition mistakes as they had earlier in Mangini's reign. Second- year man Darrelle Revis still leads the team with three interceptions, which is tied for third in the AFC, while safety Kerry Rhodes broke through for his first 2008 sack last week against Kansas City. Along the front line, end Shaun Ellis leads the team with six sacks and aims for his fifth consecutive game with at least one. Injury-wise, New York could be troubled by the absence of linebacker and leading tackler David Harris, who missed practice Wednesday with a groin problem and may not play. As a unit, New York is surrendering 315.3 yards per game, while the Bills are averaging 324.9 per game on offense.

FANTASY FOCUS

Interceptions aside, Favre is putting up the numbers that fantasy owners salivated over when he headed east, with his 15 touchdowns through seven games equaling the total compiled by Pennington and Kellen Clemens for Gang Green last season. His relationship with Coles has made the latter a commodity as well, and last week may have finally signaled the emergence of Cotchery into the prime-time role he seemed destined for in training camp. Washington was also a huge note last week, and could become one of New York's most-wanted players if he repeats that effort once or twice. For the Bills, while Edwards isn't the sexy numbers-maker that Jim Kelly was, fans will likely forgive him as long as the wins continue. Lynch is equally workmanlike and unspectacular, leaving Evans as the hottest ticket on the offense. Defensively, the teams are similar enough to be interchangeable for fantasy purposes.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Four weeks ago, in the midst of a bye week following an intoxicating win over the Cardinals, Jets fans were pointing to this game as the stepping stone to a 7-2 start and a takeover of the AFC East. Instead, with two mediocre wins in three outings since, it's turned into a do-or-die proposition if a division title is indeed a possibility. A win gets New York level with the Bills, and re-shifts the focus toward New England. A loss, and the Bills create a 1-game between the teams at the halfway point, leaving the Jets to navigate a difficult second portion after an uninspiring .500 start. For Buffalo, the hyperbole surrounding the 5-1 start was lessened somewhat by the come-from- ahead loss to the Dolphins, leaving this game as an important get-back opportunity on home turf before a trip to Foxboro next week.

More than anything else this week, injuries may play an important factor. Without Schobel, the Bills' pass rush could be lessened just enough to allow Favre to torch the secondary just as Warner did in the 24-point victory on Oct. 5 in Phoenix. Washington's emergence is key, too, providing another weapon with big-play capabilities. In the end, it'll come down to mistakes and who best limits them. The guess here is that, after consecutive duds, Favre's due for another top-end effort.

Sportsbook Betting Lines predicted outcome: Jets 24, Bills 20